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Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner
Superforecasting
Outsmart uncertainty by learning how to predict the future with clarity, logic, and disciplined thinking.
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Core Biz Category:
Personal Development
Growth Category:
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What's You Learn?
Ordinary people can predict future events better than experts using specific techniques – Superforecasting by Tetlock and Gardner reveals how anyone can dramatically improve prediction accuracy. This comprehensive forecasting mastery guide and prediction methods outline:
- Probabilistic Thinking - Express predictions as precise probabilities, not vague terms
- Base Rates First - Start with statistical averages before considering unique factors
- Perpetual Beta - Update beliefs incrementally with new evidence constantly
- Outside View - Consider similar situations before diving into specifics
Strategies
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About the Author
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5
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5
Strategies—Don't Just Read;
Apply
Aim at the Smallest Viable Audience
Create a Compelling Story
Offer Generosity First
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5
Strategies—Don't Just Read;
Apply
Aim at the Smallest Viable Audience
Create a Compelling Story
Offer Generosity First
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